Inflation Targeting

Price stability is the primary goal of inflation-targeting monetary policy strategy. Inflation is usually defined as a range of permissible values (e.g., 1%-3%) rather than as a point value (e.g., 2.4%). The definition of inflation also varies from country to country.

There are three key concepts:

Central bank independence. Central bank independence exists on two dimensions. Goal independence is the freedom that the central bank has to select the objectives of monetary policy, whether they are low inflation, the target rate of unemployment, the level of GDP, etc. Instrument independence is the freedom that the central bank has to pick appropriate policies to produce a certain outcome in the economy. Most inflation-targeting countries only lay out the goals and not the operating procedures; the central bank does have operational independence.

Credibility. Central bankers who are unable to credibly convince the public that they are serious about fighting inflation will be faced with a high inflation rate as a result.

Transparency. It is well known that credibility requires transparency. The benefits of transparency are obvious: it improves the efficiency of monetary policy, allows for a more effective management of expectations, and promotes the discussion and evaluation of monetary policy.

Exchange Rate Targeting

Many countries have viewed pegging their nominal exchange rate to a stable, low-inflation foreign currency as a means of achieving domestic price stability. In a sense, countries that target their exchange rates against an anchor currency attempt to "borrow" the foreign country's monetary policy credibility. However, this monetary policy deprives the central bank of its ability to respond to idiosyncratic domestic shocks. Such countries can become prone to speculation against their currencies.

Contractionary and Expansionary Monetary Policies

An expansionary monetary policy decreases the interest rate in order to increase the size of money supply. A contractionary monetary policy increases the interest rate to reduce the size of money supply.

The idea behind the concept of neutral rate of interest is that there might be a rate of interest that neither deliberately seeks to stimulate aggregate demand and growth nor deliberately seeks to weaken growth from its current level. In other words, a neutral rate of interest would be one that encourages a rate of growth of demand close to the estimated trend rate of growth of real GDP.

The neutral rate is a useful method of measuring the stance of monetary policy. It has two components:

Neutral rate = Trend growth + Inflation target

When the neutral rate is reached, the state of equilibrium is attained, implying that the economy is now well-balanced and the price level is stable.

Certainly there can be no such thing as an exact measure of the neutral rate, and it will differ from country to country.

A demand shock is a sudden surprise event that increases or decreases demand. If inflation is caused by an unexpected increase in aggregate demand, a contractionary monetary policy might be appropriate, to cause inflation to fall. However, if inflation is caused by a supply shock such as a sudden increase in oil price, a contractionary monetary policy might make the situation worse.

Limitations of Monetary Policy

Central banks cannot control the money supply. This is because:

• They cannot control the amount of money that households and corporations put in banks on deposit.
• They cannot control the willingness of banks to create money by expanding credit.

In quantitative easing (QE), a central bank buys any financial assets to inject money into the economy. It is different from the traditional policy of buying or selling government bonds to keep market interest rates at a specified target value. Risks include the policy being more effective than intended, spurring hyperinflation, or the risk of not being effective enough, if banks opt simply to pocket the additional money in order to increase their capital reserves.