AuthorTopic: What's your guess on passing rate ? My guess is 42%
@2016-01-14 16:36:44
Anyway, I pulled some data and apparently, CFA Level 1 June pass rates have been about 65% correlated with SPX yearly returns over the past six years. Not sure about December pass rates. This seems a bit counterintuitive. I always imagined that people would be desperate and study harder during bad years.

Of course, there might be some weird phenomenon that would cause higher average scores to translate into lower pass rates. Maybe CFAI is controlling supply of passes. Or this correlation might be purely coincidental.
@2016-01-15 20:53:44
Yeah, that is likely. It's just more fun to come up with conspiracy theories about the CFAI.
@2016-01-26 20:39:07
I'm going with 40% because it's a nice round number. With that assumption, I only need to be in the 60th percentile to pass. I find that hopeful.
@2016-01-27 11:55:22

CFA Discussion Topic: What's your guess on passing rate ? My guess is 42%

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I used your notes and passed ... highly recommended!