- CFA Exams
- CFA Level I Exam
- Study Session 2. Quantitative Methods (1)
- Reading 8. Probability Concepts
- Subject 1. Introduction

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**CFA Practice Question**

If an analyst estimates the probability of an event for which there is no historical record, this probability is best described as ______.

A. empirical

B. subjective

C. a priori

**Explanation:**An empirical probability cannot be calculated for an event not in the historical record. In this case, the analyst can make a personal assessment of the probability of the event without reference to any particular data. This is a subjective probability.

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**User Contributed Comments**
2

User |
Comment |
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schweitzdm |
The analyst is estimating probability for an event that does not have historical record. Therefore the answer cannot be A. |

praj24 |
A Priori Probability is calculated by logically examining existing information - Investopedia |