- CFA Exams
- CFA Exam: Level II 2021
- Study Session 2. Quantitative Methods (1)
- Reading 6. Time-Series Analysis
- Subject 1. Trend models

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**CFA Practice Question**

A linear trend for time series data beginning in 2006 and extending up through 2011 (data for 6 years) is Y-hat = 5.2 + 3.1t. The forecast for 2012 is

B. 26.9

C. 30.0

A. 23.8

B. 26.9

C. 30.0

Correct Answer: B

To find the forecast Y-hat = 5.2 + 3.1(7) = 26.9.

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**User Contributed Comments**
3

User |
Comment |
---|---|

vi2009 |
got tricked! forecast for 2012 ... so t = 7 |

jazzguitar |
I don't understand why t = 7. 2006 = 0 2007 = 1 2008 = 2 2009 = 3 2010 = 4 2011 = 5 2012 = 6 ? |

myron |
@jazzguitar: 2006 is year 1. |